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View Large Adding trajectories generally increased total costs in 2005 across all thresholds and models; such incremental changes were largest in the least comprehensive model while smallest or even negative in models with prior costs. For example, at the top 1 outcome level the incremental change was 30 000 NTDs for the demographics model, while at the top 5 level the incremental change was ?2000 NTDs for the prior cost model (Model 4).

Adding trajectories increased trend ratios at both top 1 and 5 outcome levels for all but the demographics model; for the demographics model the incremental change was negative, about ?0. The magnitudes of the incremental changes decreased significantly as the comprehensiveness of the model increased (from 0.

1 in Model 1 to 0.